Coffee prices today remain in the spotlight as both Arabica and Robusta markets continue to face downward pressure from expectations of a large Brazilian harvest. However, concerns over cold weather risks, slow harvesting progress, and ongoing global supply uncertainties are still keeping the coffee market highly cautious this week.
Global coffee prices remain under pressure
Coffee prices continued to weaken last week as the market reacted to expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop. Although Brazil’s 2026-2027 harvest is still in its early stages, traders and investors have already started pricing in the possibility of stronger global supply, putting downward pressure on both arabica and robusta markets.
On the London exchange, July 2026 robusta coffee futures fell by 1.4% compared to the previous week, closing at USD 3,365/ton. September 2026 contracts also dropped 1.7% to USD 3,245/ton.
Meanwhile, on the New York exchange, July 2026 arabica futures declined 2.6% to 266.9 US cents/lb, while September contracts fell 2.3% to 260.1 US cents/lb.
The recent decline reflects growing optimism about upcoming global coffee supply after several years of tight inventories and weather-related disruptions.
Brazil’s harvest outlook weighs on coffee prices
The main factor affecting coffee prices this week is Brazil’s expected production recovery. According to researchers from Cepea at the University of São Paulo, the coffee sector is highly optimistic about the country’s 2026-2027 crop, especially after last season’s relatively limited output.
Although harvesting progress remains slow, the expectation of a larger crop has already pressured arabica prices lower.
Current harvest progress in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions is estimated at only 3% to 5% of total expected production. Many farms are still reporting uneven cherry ripening and a high percentage of green beans, slowing harvesting activities.
Despite the slow pace, the market believes Brazil could significantly improve global coffee supply during the second half of 2026. This expectation is reducing bullish sentiment that dominated the coffee market throughout 2024 and 2025.
However, the downside in coffee prices remains limited because weather risks are still present. Recent cold air masses moving into Brazilian coffee regions have increased concerns about potential frost events. Any frost damage during the sensitive winter period could quickly reverse market sentiment and push prices higher again.
Vietnam coffee prices remain relatively strong
In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices have also softened in line with global market movements. However, prices remain historically high compared to long-term averages.
Coffee prices in the Central Highlands are currently trading around VND 87,000 – 88,000/kg. While lower than the record highs seen in late 2025, these levels still provide strong profitability for farmers and exporters.
Domestic supply is no longer abundant as inventories from the previous crop continue to tighten. Many farmers are still holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices, while exporters face ongoing pressure from logistics costs, financing expenses, and exchange rate fluctuations.
Vietnam remains one of the key factors supporting the robusta market, as supply availability is still limited compared to global demand.
Mexico increases coffee production
Beyond Brazil, Mexico is also showing signs of production recovery. According to the latest report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Mexico’s current coffee production estimate has been revised upward to 4.08 million bags.
Arabica production is expected to remain stable at 3.58 million bags, while robusta output continues to expand significantly, reaching approximately 500,000 bags compared to 340,000 bags in the previous season.
For the 2026-2027 crop year, USDA forecasts Mexico’s total coffee production will increase another 1% to 4.135 million bags.
The expansion of robusta production reflects a broader trend across the global coffee industry. As climate change intensifies, robusta is increasingly favored because it can tolerate higher temperatures and harsher growing conditions better than arabica.
Large coffee companies, especially in the soluble coffee sector, are actively supporting robusta cultivation to secure future supply.
Low inventories continue supporting the coffee market
Despite pressure from Brazil’s larger crop outlook, global coffee inventories remain relatively low, preventing deeper price declines.
Certified washed arabica stocks on the New York exchange recently increased by nearly 3,000 bags to more than 502,000 bags. However, inventories are still well below historical averages.
At the same time, speculative funds continue maintaining large net long positions in both London and New York coffee markets. This indicates that investors still see medium-term supply risks, particularly if adverse weather impacts Brazil or Vietnam later in the year.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support higher freight and logistics costs worldwide, indirectly supporting coffee prices.
Coffee price outlook for the coming weeks
In the short term, coffee prices are likely to remain under pressure as the market focuses heavily on Brazil’s harvest progress and production potential.
If weather conditions remain favorable and harvest activity accelerates, arabica prices could continue to weaken. However, significant declines may remain limited due to low global inventories and stable consumer demand across major markets such as the US, Europe, and Asia.
For robusta, tighter supply conditions in Vietnam and Indonesia may continue supporting prices at historically elevated levels.
Analysts believe the global coffee market in 2026 will remain highly volatile, driven by weather risks, logistics disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and changing supply-demand dynamics.
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