Coffee prices remained on an upward trend as both domestic and global markets continued to react to tightening supplies. According to Vietnam’s Agency of Foreign Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade), lower inventories, farmers holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices, and strong export demand have all contributed to rising coffee prices.
At the same time, delayed harvesting in Brazil, declining certified Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange, and weaker global Arabica exports have strengthened market sentiment. Although expectations of a larger Vietnamese Robusta crop may limit further gains, supply concerns continue to dominate the market.
Domestic Coffee Prices Recover
Following the weekend, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands increased across all major producing provinces.
Farmgate prices rose by approximately VND 900–1,000 per kilogram, bringing domestic buying prices to around:
- VND 96,200–97,000/kg
The increase reflects tightening domestic supply, as farmers and local traders continue to hold inventories while waiting for more favorable prices.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, export demand also remains strong, encouraging exporters to continue purchasing despite limited available supplies.
Global Coffee Prices Continue Higher
London Robusta
On the ICE Europe (London) exchange, Robusta futures posted moderate weekly gains:
- September 2026: USD 3,782/MT, up USD 25 (+0.8%)
- November 2026: USD 3,775/MT, up USD 37 (+1.0%)
Compared with early July:
- September futures climbed to USD 3,877/MT, representing a 6.0% increase.
- November futures reached USD 3,859/MT, up 6.8%.
New York Arabica
Arabica futures recorded even stronger gains:
- September 2026: 332.1 US cents/lb, up 18.3 cents (+5.8%)
- December 2026: 314.65 US cents/lb, up 16.6 cents (+5.6%)
Since the beginning of July:
- September futures increased 14.5% to 339.4 US cents/lb.
- December futures gained 12.5% to 317.3 US cents/lb.
The stronger performance of Arabica has continued to provide support for overall coffee prices worldwide.
Brazil Remains the Key Market Driver
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, remains the biggest influence on global coffee prices.
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade, heavy unseasonal rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica-producing region, has disrupted:
- Coffee harvesting
- Drying operations
- Bean quality
By mid-July 2026, Brazil had harvested only 64% of its coffee crop, compared with:
- 77% during the same period last year
- 70%, the five-year average
The slower harvest has delayed new crop supplies entering the market, contributing to continued price strength.
ICE Arabica Inventories Hit a Two-Year Low
Another major factor supporting coffee prices is the ongoing decline in certified Arabica inventories.
On July 27, 2026, certified Arabica stocks on the ICE exchange fell to: 292,810 bags
This represents the lowest inventory level in more than two years. Lower exchange inventories increase concerns about available supply for roasters and traders, encouraging additional buying activity in the futures market.
At the same time, global Arabica exports during the 12 months ending May 2026 declined by approximately 3 million bags compared with the previous season, further highlighting supply constraints.
Supply Concerns Continue to Support Coffee Prices
This outlook has reinforced bullish sentiment in the Arabica market.
Although Robusta prices have also benefited from higher Arabica prices, gains remain somewhat limited by expectations of improved Robusta production in Vietnam during the upcoming crop year.
Nevertheless, current supplies remain tight enough to keep upward pressure on the market.
Strong Export Demand Supports Vietnam’s Market
Domestic coffee prices are also receiving support from strong export demand.
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade:
- Exporters continue purchasing actively.
- Available coffee supplies remain limited.
- Farmers are reluctant to sell, anticipating higher prices.
By July 29, 2026, coffee prices across the Central Highlands, including Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, and Dak Nong had increased by approximately VND 7,800–8,000/kg compared with July 1.
Buying prices reached: VND 97,800–98,500/kg, depending on the region.
The imbalance between limited supply and steady export demand continues to provide strong support for domestic prices.
Coffee Price Outlook
Looking ahead, the direction of coffee prices will largely depend on several key factors:
- Brazil’s harvest progress and bean quality
- Weather conditions across major producing regions
- ICE certified coffee inventories
- Export volumes from Brazil and Vietnam
- Global demand from major importing markets such as the United States, the European Union, and Asia
If Brazil’s harvest continues to face delays and certified inventories remain historically low, coffee prices are likely to stay well supported in the near term.
However, traders will also closely monitor Vietnam’s upcoming Robusta harvest and changes in global consumption patterns before confirming a longer-term market trend.
Conclusion
Coffee prices continue to receive strong support from tightening global supplies, slower harvesting in Brazil, declining ICE Arabica inventories, and robust export demand. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s domestic market remains firm as farmers continue holding inventories while exporters actively compete for limited supplies.
Although expectations of higher Robusta production in Vietnam may eventually moderate price gains, the current supply-demand balance suggests that coffee prices are likely to remain relatively strong in the coming weeks.
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