Coffee prices on March 18, 2026 recorded a slight recovery after a period of strong volatility. In Vietnam, domestic prices in the Central Highlands increased by 200 VND/kg, while on the global market, both robusta and arabica continued to rebound. These movements suggest that the market is gradually stabilizing, although it is still influenced by supply dynamics, inventory levels, and geopolitical factors.
Domestic Coffee Prices Edge Higher in the Central Highlands
According to the latest update at 06:03 AM on March 18, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands rose by 200 VND/kg compared to the previous day, ranging between 89,700 – 90,700 VND/kg.
Specifically:
This slight increase in coffee prices indicates that selling pressure from farmers has eased after recent fluctuations. However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Many farmers are not rushing to sell in large volumes, instead waiting for more favorable price movements.
Meanwhile, exporters report that trading activity is still moderate, mainly focused on short-term demand. This reflects a wait-and-see approach as the market has yet to establish a clear long-term trend for coffee prices.
Global Coffee Prices Continue to Recover
On the international market, coffee prices extended their gains at the close of the latest trading session, signaling a recovery after a recent downturn.
Robusta Prices on the London Exchange
March 2026 contract increased by $87/ton (+2.45%) to $3,641/ton
May 2026 contract reached $3,527/ton
July 2026 contract rose to $3,443/ton
This rebound comes after robusta prices dropped to a seven-month low last week. The recovery is mainly driven by reduced selling pressure and market correction following a heavy sell-off.
Arabica Prices on the New York Exchange
March 2026 contract rose to 302.05 cents/lb
May 2026 contract reached 294.75 cents/lb
July 2026 contract climbed to 288.20 cents/lb
The upward trend in arabica indicates a broad recovery across the global coffee market. However, the gains remain moderate and not yet strong enough to confirm a sustained bullish trend in coffee prices.
Supply and Inventory: Key Drivers of Coffee Prices
One of the most critical factors influencing coffee prices is global supply. Recent data shows that exchange-monitored inventories are increasing:
Rising inventories suggest improving supply conditions, which could put downward pressure on coffee prices in the medium to long term. However, in the short term, the market is supported by technical recovery and improved sentiment.
Brazil: A Major Influence on Coffee Prices
Brazil remains a key driver of global coffee prices. Analysts expect the 2026–2027 crop to increase significantly due to:
Expanded cultivation areas
Improved farming techniques
Better robusta varieties
These factors are strengthening expectations of a larger future supply, which could weigh on coffee prices if demand does not grow at the same pace.
Geopolitical Factors Continue to Impact Coffee Prices
Beyond supply and demand, geopolitical tensions are also affecting coffee prices. Ongoing instability in the Middle East has contributed to higher energy and transportation costs, indirectly supporting commodity prices, including coffee.
However, this is likely a short-term factor. In the long run, coffee prices will depend more heavily on production levels, inventory trends, and global consumption.
Coffee Price Outlook: Recovery with Caution
Overall, 2026 show positive signs of recovery after a sharp decline. However, this upward trend remains fragile due to:
Increasing global supply
Rising inventory levels
Ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties
In the short term, coffee market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range with a slight upward bias. In the longer term, downward pressure could emerge if supply from major producers like Brazil expands significantly.
Conclusion
The latest movement in coffee prices reflects a market in transition recovering but not yet stable. While the rebound in both domestic and global markets is encouraging, it is not sufficient to confirm a long-term uptrend.
For farmers, traders, and exporters, this is a crucial period to closely monitor market developments and adjust strategies accordingly. In such a complex environment, staying updated on coffee prices will be essential for making informed and effective business decisions.
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