Coffee Price Forecast for January 2026

After a whipsaw 2025, all eyes are on the Coffee Price Forecast for early 2026. The balance of risks points to slight declines or sideways movement into January as supply normalizes, Vietnam’s robusta harvest expands, and weather models tilt toward a weak, brief La Niña. At the same time, tight exchange stocks, tariffs, and Brazil’s weather could keep volatility elevated. Below is a practical, research-backed outlook you can use to plan purchasing, selling, and hedging.

Executive view: Base case vs. risks

• Base case (Jan 2026): Prices ease or stabilize from late-2025 highs. For Vietnam, a domestic robusta range around 90,000–100,000 VND/kg is plausible if harvest flows improve and weather cooperates. This reflects bigger 2025/26 supplies—especially in Vietnam—and a softening of speculative froth as funds rebalance positions. (Our forecast; see fundamentals below.)

• Upside risk: Heavy rains from La Niña delaying picking/drying, ongoing low certified stocks, tariff persistence, or renewed Brazilian dryness could trigger short bursts upward against the broader easing trend.

• Downside risk: Normal-to-good harvest weather, improved logistics, and any tariff reprieve could push prices below the base band.

What changed in 2025

• Futures hit historic levels. Arabica neared or set modern records around the turn of 2025, while robusta also rallied sharply on tight stocks and weather. These spikes reset contract reference points for physical trade.

• La Niña returned (weak). NOAA now indicates La Niña conditions are present, with odds favoring persistence through Dec-Feb 2026, then transitioning toward neutral in early spring. A weak event still matters for harvest windows and logistics.

• Tariffs reshaped flows. U.S. trade actions in 2025 (including a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and a 10% baseline on many goods) altered arbitrage and destination choices, keeping U.S. differentials firm and global trade more jittery.

• Stocks stayed tight. Exchange-monitored inventories for both arabica and robusta fell to multi-month lows at times, amplifying moves when weather headlines hit.

Robusta outlook: More beans, more balance

• Vietnam 2025/26 production is rising. USDA projects ~31 million bags total (about 30m bags robusta), a recovery supported by high prices, better input use, and favorable weather. This is the single biggest reason our Coffee Price Forecast leans toward slight softening into January.

• Brazil’s robusta keeps expanding. Rabobank sees Brazil closing the robusta gap, adding medium-term supply resilience. This reinforces the “more balance” narrative into 2026, even if harvest timing differs by origin.

• Key watch: Certified robusta stocks. If London inventories rebuild more quickly than expected, downside pressure could increase; if they stay tight, price dips may be shallow.

Implication: In Vietnam, a 90,000–100,000 VND/kg band in Jan 2026 looks reasonable in the base case, with spikes possible if rains disrupt picking or drying schedules. (Forecast based on supply and weather signals above.)

Arabica outlook: Brazil’s skies call the tune

• Weather still rules. Regular, well-timed rainfall in Brazil can ease arabica prices; renewed dryness during key phenological stages can quickly reverse the trend. Late-2025 commentary already shows prices reacting to rain forecasts.

• Stocks, specs, and sentiment. Persistently low certified stocks keep arabica reactive; any rebuild could cap rallies. Watch speculative length into year-end for clues on how violent corrections may be.

Implication: Arabica sets the tone for premium differentials. If Brazil’s rains behave, the curve can relax; if not, expect renewed bursts upward.

La Niña watch: Weak event, real logistics risk

• What NOAA says: La Niña conditions are present and favored through Dec–Feb 2026, with a likely transition to neutral by late Q1. Even a weak event can bring heavy rains to parts of Southeast Asia and northern South America, complicating harvest, drying, and transport. 

• Why it matters: Delays and quality risk can cause temporary premiums and odd intra-week rallies even within a softening macro trend.

Tariffs, currencies, and freight: The non-weather wildcards

• Tariffs: U.S. measures in 2025 significantly affected flow maps and consumer pricing, with Brazil at 50% and other origins subject to varying rates. Any exemptions or rollbacks would be bearish; entrenchment is neutral to bullish. 

• FX: A stronger USD typically pressures local farmgate prices while supporting dollar-denominated futures.

• Freight & insurance: Seasonal container tightness and regional disruptions can widen basis and delay shipments, creating localized price spikes even when the board is calm.

Scenario map: January 2026

• Bull case: 100,000–120,000 VND/kg (Vietnam robusta)
  Drivers: harvest-time downpours, logistics delays, persistently low exchange stocks, tariff frictions intact, Brazil weather hiccups.

• Base case: 90,000–100,000 VND/kg
  Drivers: large Vietnam crop flows smoothly; La Niña remains weak/short; sentiment cools after 2025’s peaks.

• Bear case: 80,000–90,000 VND/kg
  Drivers: benign weather, faster stock rebuild, any tariff relief, improved ocean logistics.

(Ranges are indicative planning bands, not guarantees.)

Actionable playbook

For farmers

• Sell in phases. Avoid betting the farm on another 2025-style spike. Stage sales across Q1 to average price.

• Upgrade quality. Screen clean, improve drying, and target traceable lots; premiums cushion downside when the board softens.

• Cash-flow discipline. Map input purchases and loan schedules to staged sales to reduce forced selling at weak moments.

For roasters and traders

• Hedge the range. Use futures/options to defend unit economics around the base-case band; layer coverage rather than going “all-in.”

• Diversify origin and form. Balance Vietnam robusta with Indonesia/Brazil coverage; hold some flexibility between whole-bean, soluble, and blends.

• Track dashboards weekly: Watch key data every week and adjust sourcing speed, volume, or blend ratios accordingly.

Bottom line

Our Coffee Price Forecast for January 2026 is sideways to slightly lower from late-2025 highs, anchored by a larger Vietnam robusta crop and a weak La Niña that is more a logistics risk than a structural supply shock. Short-lived spikes are still possible if rains stall harvesting or if stocks remain tight. Keep plans flexible, hedge the mid-range, and use phased selling or buying to smooth the bumps.

Helena Coffee Vietnam helps partners turn uncertainty into opportunity: origin diversification, transparent sourcing, and pragmatic hedging guidance from Buon Ma Thuot to your roastery. Let’s build a procurement plan that works in every scenario.

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