As the second installment in our Coffee Price Forecast 2026 series, this article takes a deep dive into Vietnam’s coffee market—both its recent highs and the hurdles ahead. While 2024–2025 saw record prices and strong export growth, the road to 2026 is paved with uncertainties. From shifting weather patterns to increasing input costs, regulatory pressure from the EU’s EUDR, and the urgent call for value-added processing, Vietnam’s coffee industry stands at a critical turning point. In this report, we analyze production forecasts, domestic consumption, and strategic challenges that will shape Vietnam’s role in the global coffee landscape through 2026.
Current Market Situation (2024-2025)
Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam during the 2024-2025 period reached record highs, bringing good profits to farmers. However, the market also experienced significant fluctuations. For example, in late May 2025, coffee prices in the Central Highlands ranged from 113,500 – 114,000 VND/kg , before adjusting to around 118,200 – 118,700 VND/kg on May 30, 2025. These fluctuations closely followed global price movements.
In terms of exports, Vietnam continues to assert its position as the world’s leading Robusta supplier. In the first four months of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports recorded impressive growth in value, especially in the Mexican market. Major markets such as Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, and Spain also saw strong growth in coffee import turnover from Vietnam in the first two months of 2025. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese coffee remains high.
A prominent feature of the market during this period was the very high price differential between spot Vietnamese Robusta coffee and the reference price on the London exchange. At one point in 2024, this differential exceeded USD 1,000/ton. This reflects a severe shortage of spot supply from Vietnam and possibly from other Robusta-producing countries like Indonesia, forcing roasters and traders to pay a significantly higher price than the futures contract price to secure beans. This situation may encourage some farmers and agents to hold back their stock in anticipation of even higher prices, thereby exacerbating the temporary scarcity in the physical market.
The strong increase in export value, even when production volume may not have increased correspondingly (for example, MXV mentioned that Vietnam’s 2023/24 crop production decreased compared to the previous crop ), shows that Vietnam is benefiting greatly from high world prices. However, this also raises questions about the sustainability of this growth momentum if the coffee industry relies mainly on exporting raw beans at high prices without a breakthrough in increasing deep processing. According to USDA data, green coffee beans still accounted for about 90% of Vietnam’s total coffee exports in 2024. This dependence on raw exports could pose a significant risk when world prices fluctuate unfavorably.
Vietnam’s Coffee Production Outlook for the 2025/26 Crop Year and Preliminary Forecast for 2026/27
After a few crop years affected by unfavorable weather and price volatility, Vietnam’s coffee production is forecast to recover in the 2025/26 crop year.
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Vietnam’s total coffee production for the 2025/26 crop year to increase to 31 million bags (Green Bean Equivalent – GBE), with Robusta accounting for 30 million bags and Arabica about 1 million bags. The main reason for this increase is that high prices in previous years have encouraged farmers to increase investment in farm care.
- Rabobank, in a forecast in April 2025, estimated Vietnam’s Robusta production for the 2025/26 crop year to be around 28 million bags.
- The Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV) also provided an optimistic forecast, suggesting that Vietnam’s coffee production in 2025 (which can be understood as the 2024/25 crop year ending in late 2025) will increase by about 10% compared to 2024, reaching 1.65 to 1.75 million tons (equivalent to 28 to 29 million bags). MXV expects more stable weather, along with better care from farmers due to high prices, to boost productivity. The La Niña phenomenon, predicted to replace El Niño in late 2024, is also expected to bring more favorable weather conditions, reducing concerns about drought.
The main factors affecting coffee yield and acreage in Vietnam include market prices, the level of farmer investment in fertilizers and farming techniques, weather conditions (especially rainfall and temperature during critical stages of the coffee plant), and input costs. Although the current high prices are a major incentive for farmers to invest , they also face rising costs for fertilizers and labor.
The recovery of Vietnam’s production in the 2025/26 crop year, if combined with a potential record Robusta output from Brazil as some forecasts suggest , could create significant downward pressure on the global Robusta market in late 2025 and into 2026. This could only be mitigated if global Robusta consumption demand surges or if other major Robusta-producing countries face severe production problems.
However, even if global Robusta coffee prices might decrease due to a recovery in global supply, Vietnamese farmers could still face the risk of shrinking profit margins in 2026. This is because input costs, particularly for fertilizers and labor , may not decrease correspondingly or could even remain high due to inflation and other market factors. This could affect farmers’ investment decisions for subsequent crop seasons after 2026.
A preliminary forecast for the 2026/27 crop year will largely depend on price developments and farmer profitability in the 2025/26 crop year, as well as weather factors and government support policies. If coffee prices in 2026 remain attractive and input costs are controlled, farmers may continue to invest to maintain or slightly increase production.
Table 2: Vietnam Coffee Production and Export Forecast (Crop Year 2024/25 – 2025/26)
| Category | Crop Year | USDA (5/2025) | Rabobank (4/2025) | MXV (2025) |
| Robusta Production (million bags) | 2024/25 | 28.0 | – | 25-26.5 (total) |
| 2025/26 | 30.0 | ~28.0 | 28-29 (total) | |
| Arabica Production (million bags) | 2024/25 | 1.0 | – | |
| 2025/26 | 1.0 | – | ||
| Total Production (million bags) | 2024/25 | 29.0 | – | 25-26.5 |
| 2025/26 | 31.0 | ~28.0 (Robusta) | 28-29 | |
| Total Exports (million bags GBE) | 2024/25 | 25.8 | – | – |
| 2025/26 | 27.0 | – | – |
Note: MXV’s forecast for “2025” may correspond to the 2024/25 crop year. Rabobank’s data focuses mainly on Robusta. GBE: Green Bean Equivalent.
Key Factors Shaping Vietnam’s Coffee Industry
Besides production volume, several other factors will play a crucial role in shaping Vietnam’s coffee industry up to 2026 and beyond:
Quality and Deep Processing
The Vietnamese coffee industry is facing an urgent need to shift from focusing on quantity to improving quality and increasing the proportion of deep-processed products to enhance value. Currently, green coffee beans still account for a large share of the export structure, around 90% in 2024. The Vietnamese government has approved the “Project for the Development of Vietnamese Specialty Coffee for the period 2021-2030,” which aims for specialty coffee acreage to reach 19,000 hectares by 2030, accounting for about 3% of the total coffee area, with a production of about 11,000 tons. Focusing on specialty and high-quality coffee is a crucial long-term strategy for Vietnam to escape its dependence on the commodity Robusta market, which has low profit margins and high price volatility. However, this is a process that requires significant time and investment in varieties, cultivation techniques, processing technology, and brand building in the international market, where the recognition of high-quality Vietnamese Robusta still needs to be strengthened. 
EU Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR)
This regulation, expected to be fully effective for large companies from the end of 2025 , will have a strong impact on Vietnamese coffee exporters to the EU market. EUDR requires agricultural products, including coffee, imported into the EU to be proven not to originate from land deforested after December 31, 2020, and to comply with the laws of the host country, including regulations on human and labor rights. Coffee is one of the seven commodities targeted by EUDR due to its association with deforestation risks.
This poses a major challenge in terms of traceability down to the cultivation plot, especially for a country with millions of smallholder coffee farmers like Vietnam (over 1.4 million households by some estimates ). EUDR could act as an unintentional “filter,” potentially accelerating consolidation within the industry. Larger, better-organized farms and cooperatives with the resources to invest in traceability systems will have an advantage in meeting EUDR requirements. Conversely, smallholder farmers, without support and linkage, may find it difficult to access the EU market, and could even be excluded from the supply chain.
Domestic Consumption
Vietnam’s domestic coffee consumption market is experiencing significant growth, driven by an expanding middle class, the development of coffee chains, and a growing coffee-drinking culture. The USDA forecasts Vietnam’s domestic coffee consumption to increase to 4.9 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year. This growth, on one hand, creates a stable outlet for a portion of the production, but on the other hand, it also reduces the surplus coffee available for export, which could affect total export turnover if production does not increase correspondingly.
Government Support Policies
State policies play a crucial role in directing and supporting the coffee industry’s development. Coffee replanting programs using new varieties with high yield, quality, and better resistance to pests and diseases, adapted to climate change, are essential. In addition, policies encouraging investment in deep processing technology, supporting brand building and trade promotion, as well as assisting the coffee industry in meeting new import market regulations like EUDR, will contribute to enhancing the competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee.
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