Coffee Price Forecast 2026: Vietnam and Global Markets (P1)

As we approach 2026, the global coffee price landscape remains highly dynamic—shaped by climate shocks, economic volatility, and shifting consumer behavior. From droughts in Brazil to rising production in Vietnam, and growing demand across Asia, multiple forces are influencing both Arabica and Robusta coffee prices. This in-depth forecast explores expected coffee price trends for 2026, with a special focus on Vietnam and major producing regions, helping stakeholders—from exporters to roasters—plan for challenges and seize new market opportunities.

Executive Summary: Coffee Price Outlook for 2026

This report provides a forecast for coffee prices in the global and Vietnamese markets for 2026, based on an analysis of supply and demand factors, macroeconomic conditions, climate patterns, production costs, and market regulations. Overall, the coffee market in 2026 is expected to continue facing significant volatility, although several key trends can be identified.

Global coffee prices, for both Arabica and Robusta, are likely to be influenced by the anticipated production recovery in major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam following challenging weather-affected seasons. However, the extent of this recovery and its impact on prices will depend on a complex interplay of factors. Macroeconomic conditions, including global growth, inflation, and exchange rate fluctuations, will play a crucial role in shaping consumer purchasing power and production costs. Climate change remains a long-term factor causing production instability, while new regulations such as the EU’s Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR) will present new challenges and opportunities for producers and exporters.

A noteworthy point is the potential divergence in trends between Arabica and Robusta coffee price. While Robusta production may recover more strongly due to favorable conditions in Vietnam and increased acreage and productivity in Brazil, Arabica production, particularly from Brazil, may remain under pressure from adverse weather patterns like the drought observed in previous years. If this scenario unfolds, the Arabica supply could be tighter than Robusta, keeping Arabica prices at a high level or even causing them to rise. Simultaneously, in a global economic context that may still be fraught with uncertainty and pressure on consumer incomes, a shift in consumption patterns towards more affordable coffee types, typically Robusta, is possible. This increased demand for Robusta could partially offset the downward price pressure from increased supply, or even keep Robusta prices stable if the shift is significant enough. As a result, the coffee price differential between Arabica and Robusta could change considerably compared to previous periods.   

For the Vietnamese market, domestic coffee prices will be dually impacted by world prices and internal factors such as production volume, input costs, and the USD/VND exchange rate. The Vietnamese coffee industry faces an urgent need to improve quality, enhance deep processing, and adapt to increasingly stringent market standards to ensure sustainable growth.

Global Coffee Market Context: Preparing for 2026

Current Situation and Recent Trends (2024-2025)

The 2024-2025 period has witnessed significant volatility in the world coffee market. After a period of high prices driven by concerns over tightened supply due to adverse weather in key producing countries and increased logistics costs, the market has shown signs of correction. Specifically, in late May 2025, world coffee prices experienced a sharp decline, attributed to improved supply and inventory levels. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) report also noted a significant drop in Robusta prices in May 2025. 

Regarding inventory, data from the ICO shows that certified Robusta coffee stocks on the London exchange increased by 28.1%, ending May 2025 at 0.92 million bags (60 kg/bag type). Similarly, certified Arabica coffee stocks also rose by 9.4% in May, to 0.93 million bags. The ICO Composite Price Indicator (I-CIP) averaged 334.41 US cents/pound in May 2025, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, reflecting a slight correction after a strong price surge in Q1 2025. Earlier, in October 2024, the I-CIP was lower at 250.56 US cents/lb, indicating a significant upward price trend in late 2024 and early 2025 before the correction.  

However, the recent price drop and inventory increase may only be a short-term adjustment. Long-term fundamental factors still harbor risks that could push prices up again. Extreme weather events like El Niño and La Niña remain a constant threat to coffee production in many key growing regions. Additionally, production input costs, especially for fertilizers, could remain high or fluctuate unpredictably. If these factors turn unfavorable, the global coffee supply could quickly tighten again, driving prices higher. Therefore, the price decrease observed in mid-2025 may not reflect a long-term downward trend but rather an immediate market reaction to temporarily improved supply information.  

Another noteworthy point during this period is the difference in price dynamics between Arabica and Robusta coffee. The ICO’s report for May 2025 indicated that while prices for Arabica varieties continued to rise slightly or remain stable, Robusta prices fell sharply. This divergence suggests that specific supply and demand factors for each type of coffee are having a strong impact. This could reflect specific concerns about Arabica supply, for example, the impact of dry weather in Brazil primarily affecting Arabica growing areas, while the market anticipates a recovery in Robusta supply from Vietnam or from Brazil’s own Robusta crop. This differential could also stem from roasters adjusting their blend ratios between the two types of coffee to cope with the high price of a specific type, thereby creating demand feedback loops. This highlights the importance of analyzing the market dynamics of each coffee type separately, rather than just looking at the overall picture.

Production Forecast for Key Regions (excluding Vietnam)

Brazil: As the world’s largest coffee producer, Brazil is always the market’s focal point. Production forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/26 crop year differ among reputable analysis organizations, indicating a high level of uncertainty. Rabobank forecasts Brazil’s total coffee production for the 2025/26 crop year to decrease by 6.4% from the previous crop, to 62.8 million bags. Of this, Arabica production is projected to fall sharply by 13.6% to only about 38 million bags, mainly due to dry weather conditions affecting flowering in 2024. Conversely, Rabobank forecasts Brazil’s Robusta (Conilon) production to increase by 7.3%, reaching a record 24.7 million bags, thanks to good yields.   

Meanwhile, in May 2025, Conab (Brazil’s National Supply Company) raised its forecast for Brazil’s coffee production for the 2025 harvest year (note this is the calendar year, which may include the end of the 2024/25 crop and the beginning of the 2025/26 crop) to 55.7 million bags. Conab stated this is a record high for an off-year in the biennial cycle of the Arabica plant, and this increase is mainly due to a sharp rise in Robusta productivity. Specifically, Conab expects the average yield of Robusta coffee to increase by 28.3%, with an estimated production of 18.7 million bags, thanks to stable weather during critical crop stages. Conab forecasts Arabica production to decrease by 6.6% to about 37 million bags due to the cycle’s effect and dry weather.   

The divergence in these forecasts, especially regarding total production and Arabica output, highlights the importance of closely monitoring weather developments in Brazil in the coming months. Any new information on rainfall and temperature in the main growing regions could lead to significant adjustments in production expectations and cause major price fluctuations in the market.

Table 1: Brazil Coffee Production Forecast for the 2025/26 Crop Year (Million 60kg bags)

Note: Conab’s forecast is for the 2025 harvest year, while Rabobank’s is for the 2025/26 crop year. Further updates should be monitored for a clearer picture.

Other significant producers: Besides Brazil, production from other countries also plays a crucial role.

• Ethiopia: The birthplace of Arabica coffee, this country is forecast to produce 11.6 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year, thanks to favorable weather, increased productivity from rejuvenating old trees, and the use of improved inputs like high-yield seedlings.  
• Peru: Peru’s coffee production in the 2025/26 crop year is forecast to recover by 8%, reaching 4.2 million bags.  
• Colombia: As the world’s second-largest producer of high-quality washed Arabica, Colombia’s production is always closely watched by the market. Weather and socio-economic conditions will affect its crop.
• Indonesia: This country produces both Robusta and a small amount of Arabica. Indonesia’s Robusta production can be affected by weather patterns similar to those in Vietnam.

The expected production growth in Ethiopia and Peru, if realized, could help alleviate some of the supply pressure for high-quality Arabica coffee on the global market. However, the total additional output from these two countries (estimated at around 1-2 million bags compared to previous averages, depending on the baseline) may not be enough to fully compensate if Brazil’s Arabica production drops sharply as some forecasts suggest (e.g., a 5-6 million bag decrease as per Rabobank’s forecast ). Therefore, the Arabica market could still face a tight supply situation, maintaining upward price pressure for this type of coffee.

Global Demand Dynamics

Global coffee consumption demand is projected to continue growing, although the pace may vary across regions. Traditional markets like the European Union (EU) and the United States remain the largest consumers. The EU coffee market is expected to grow at an average rate of 5.5% per year during the 2020–2025 period. Recent reports also indicate that the European coffee market size will continue to expand until 2026. Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, and Spain continue to be important coffee export markets for the world, including Vietnam.   

However, the strongest growth momentum is forecast to come from emerging markets, especially in Asia. China is emerging as a massive potential coffee consumption market, with a growing coffee-drinking culture among the youth and middle class. The coffee market size in China is projected to reach USD 2.3 billion by 2029. The growth in consumption in Asia, particularly China, could become a significant counterbalancing factor to production fluctuations, helping to maintain a floor for global coffee prices in the long term. When a large and developing consumer market like China increases its demand, it will absorb a substantial portion of global production. Even if world coffee production increases, strong demand from these emerging markets could prevent prices from falling too steeply, creating a new support level for prices.  

Post-COVID-19 consumer behavior has also seen significant changes, affecting the demand structure. The trend of at-home coffee consumption has markedly increased, leading to a rise in demand for instant coffee, pre-packaged roasted and ground coffee, coffee capsules, and home brewing equipment. This shift in consumption channels (at-home versus at-café) can influence the type of coffee preferred and the requirements for quality and packaging. This could increase demand for Robusta coffee (often used in instant coffee production) or more affordable Arabica varieties for daily home consumption. Coffee producers and processors need to capture these changes to adjust their product portfolios and marketing strategies accordingly, while also seizing the opportunity to innovate in convenient, high-quality coffee products for the at-home consumption segment. 

Helena Coffee Vietnam – Where Premium Coffee Begins
From the fertile basalt highlands to world-class processing standards, Helena Coffee delivers high-quality Vietnamese beans that are clean, sustainable, and fully traceable.
Partner with Helena and you’re choosing not just coffee, but transparency, consistency, and superior value.