As global trade tensions continue to rise, the United States’ latest tariff policy proposals have raised alarm bells throughout the coffee industry. According to the National Coffee Association (NCA), newly proposed tariffs could increase coffee prices in the U.S. by as much as 50%, with potentially severe consequences for consumers, businesses, and international supply chains.
Coffee: A Critical Import With No Substitutes
Unlike many other commodities subject to tariffs for reasons such as unfair trade practices or to encourage domestic production, coffee stands apart. The United States does not produce coffee at scale, meaning it relies heavily on imported green coffee beans, primarily from Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and other Central and South American countries.
In an official letter sent to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, NCA President and CEO Bill Murray emphasized that there is no alternative source to replace imported coffee. The letter also strongly urged the Biden administration to exempt coffee from any upcoming tariffs, warning that without such exemptions, the price of coffee in the U.S. could increase dramatically—by up to 50% in retail markets.
Canada and Mexico Tariffs Could Disrupt North American Coffee Operations
North America’s coffee industry is deeply integrated across Canada, Mexico, and the United States, particularly in roasting, packaging, and distribution. The proposed tariff hikes, including a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, could destabilize these operations. According to the NCA, most coffee products are not covered under the USMCA trade agreement, which means they are immediately subject to additional tariffs if this policy goes into effect.
Such disruption would not only hurt American businesses and consumers but also strain longstanding supply chains that have historically supported small and medium-sized coffee roasters across the U.S.
Coffee’s Economic Impact in the U.S.
The importance of coffee to the American economy cannot be overstated. The National Coffee Association reports that the industry contributes approximately $343 billion annually to the U.S. economy and supports millions of jobs across importers, exporters, brokers, roasters, cafés, and retail outlets.
Moreover, about 75% of American adults are regular coffee drinkers, making the beverage not only a personal staple but a national economic pillar. Any significant price hike caused by tariffs will have a ripple effect—hurting small businesses, cafés, and working-class consumers the most.
Global Ramifications: South American Coffee Prices Surge
The U.S. is the largest importer and consumer of coffee in the world. Brazil continues to be the top supplier, followed by Colombia and other nations in Latin America. However, the possibility of new tariffs on South American imports has already contributed to a spike in global coffee prices.
In February 2025, wholesale Arabica coffee prices exceeded $4 per pound—a record high not seen in years. Industry experts attribute this increase in part to fears of U.S. tariffs and broader uncertainty surrounding international trade policy.
NCA Warns of Deeper Consequences
The NCA has not only called for an exemption for coffee from Canada and Mexico but also urged the U.S. administration to avoid applying tariffs to coffee from producing countries. Imposing trade barriers on origin countries could have even more serious long-term effects, including reduced access to quality coffee and the collapse of fragile global supply chains.
This concern goes beyond economics. Many of the countries that export coffee to the U.S. depend on agriculture as a primary source of income. Tariffs could threaten the livelihoods of thousands of smallholder farmers, reducing their ability to meet quality standards and maintain consistent supply.
Conclusion: The Industry Calls for Immediate Action
As inflation and production costs rise across sectors, adding coffee to the list of taxed imports could lead to severe market consequences. Without intervention, coffee lovers across the United States may soon feel the impact not only in their wallets but also in the availability and diversity of the coffees they enjoy.
The National Coffee Association continues to lobby for tariff exemptions and urges stakeholders—from consumers to retailers—to raise awareness about how international trade policies impact everyday products.
For an industry that fuels not just mornings but the entire economy, the stakes could not be higher.
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