The global coffee market continues to show mixed signals as coffee prices move in opposite directions across major exchanges. On June 9, 2026, robusta coffee futures rebounded after a sharp decline last week, while arabica prices extended their downward trend and remained near their lowest level in 19 months.
Despite the recovery in robusta, growing global supply expectations, Brazil’s ongoing harvest, and currency fluctuations continue to weigh heavily on overall market sentiment. At the same time, declining certified coffee inventories and cautious selling from producers are providing some support to prices.
Global Coffee Prices: Robusta Rebounds, Arabica Continues Falling
At the close of trading on June 8, robusta coffee futures on the London exchange posted gains after suffering a nearly 5% decline during the previous week.
- July 2026 robusta contract increased by 0.51% (+US$17/tonne) to US$3,333/tonne
- September 2026 robusta contract rose 0.84% (+US$27/tonne) to US$3,260/tonne
Meanwhile, arabica coffee futures on the New York exchange continued their bearish momentum.
- July 2026 arabica contract declined 0.24% (-0.6 US cent/lb) to 245.9 US cents/lb
- September 2026 arabica contract fell 0.19% (-0.45 US cent/lb) to 241.65 US cents/lb
This marked the sixth consecutive trading session of losses for arabica coffee since the beginning of last week, keeping prices at their lowest levels in approximately 19 months.
Vietnam Coffee Prices Today
In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, domestic coffee prices eased slightly on June 9, declining by 100 VND/kg compared to the previous day.
Current farmgate prices ranged from 84,500 VND/kg to 85,300 VND/kg.
Regional Coffee Prices
| Province | Price (VND/kg) | Change |
| Dak Nong | 85,300 | -100 |
| Dak Lak | 85,100 | -100 |
| Gia Lai | 85,100 | -100 |
| Lam Dong | 84,500 | Unchanged |
Dak Nong remained the highest-priced coffee-growing region, while Lam Dong continued to record the lowest purchasing prices in the country.
Although the decline was relatively minor, the softer domestic market reflects growing caution among traders as global supply prospects improve.
Brazil Harvest Continues to Pressure Coffee Prices
According to Reuters, one of the primary factors influencing current coffee prices is the ongoing harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. The arrival of fresh coffee supplies from Brazil is increasing expectations of greater availability in the global market. As a result, traders remain cautious despite the recent recovery in robusta prices.
Another bearish factor has been the weakness of the Brazilian real. The currency recently fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in nearly two months.
A weaker real encourages Brazilian producers to increase export sales because coffee sold in dollars generates more local currency revenue. This additional selling pressure contributes to larger supplies entering international markets and weighs on prices.
Record Global Coffee Production Expected
Market analysts are increasingly focused on forecasts for the 2026/27 coffee season.
According to Rabobank: Global coffee production is expected to reach a record level during the 2026/27 crop year.
If realized, this would significantly improve global coffee availability after several years of weather-related disruptions that contributed to historically high prices. However, short-term supply conditions remain less straightforward.
Brazilian farmers are not yet aggressively selling their new crop despite the ongoing harvest. Many producers appear reluctant to commit large volumes at current market prices, preferring to monitor market developments before increasing sales.
Brazil Harvest Progress Remains Below Average
This figure remains below the five-year average of 27%, indicating that harvesting activities are progressing at a slower pace than normal. Safras & Mercado also noted that coffee trading activity within Brazil remains moderate, as growers continue to monitor:
- Price movements
- Harvest progress
- Export demand
- Inventory developments
Nevertheless, supplies from the new crop are gradually entering the market and are expected to increase significantly in the coming weeks. This anticipated rise in availability remains one of the most important factors influencing future coffee price direction.
Certified Coffee Inventories Remain Historically Low
While supply forecasts are improving, certified inventories continue to provide support for the market.
Arabica Inventories
ICE-certified arabica coffee stocks fell to: 412,422 bags as of June 8. This represents the lowest inventory level in approximately six months.
Robusta Inventories
ICE-certified robusta stocks previously dropped to: 3,631 lots on May 15. This was the lowest level recorded in two years.
Although inventories later recovered slightly to 3,732 lots, they remain historically low.
The tight inventory situation helps explain why coffee prices have not fallen more aggressively despite improving harvest conditions.
Traders Remain Cautious
During the first days of the week, coffee markets have attempted to recover part of the losses experienced in recent sessions. However, traders remain cautious due to several competing factors:
Bullish Factors
- Low certified coffee inventories
- Slow Brazilian harvest progress
- Limited producer selling
- Strong long-term coffee demand
Bearish Factors
- Growing Brazilian supply
- Expectations for record global production
- Weak Brazilian real
- Improved weather conditions in producing countries
As a result, market volatility is expected to remain elevated throughout the coming weeks.
Uganda Coffee Export Revenue Declines
Uganda, Africa’s largest coffee exporter, also reported weaker export revenues due to falling global coffee prices.
According to Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture:
- Coffee export revenue in April totaled US$155.5 million
- This represented a decline from US$173.4 million during the same month last year
- The decrease was approximately 10% year-over-year
The ministry attributed the decline primarily to lower global coffee prices.
However, the longer-term picture remains positive.
During the 12 months ending in April, Uganda generated:
US$2.4 billion in coffee export earnings
This represents a 24% increase compared to the previous year, highlighting the continued importance of coffee as a major foreign-exchange earner for the East African nation.
Outlook for Coffee Prices
The outlook for coffee prices remains balanced between improving global supply and persistently tight inventories.
Robusta has shown signs of recovery after last week’s sharp decline, while arabica continues to face pressure from expectations of larger Brazilian production. The pace of Brazil’s harvest, global demand trends, and certified inventory levels will likely remain the key market drivers throughout June.
Although short-term volatility is expected to continue, the market remains highly sensitive to any developments affecting production, exports, weather conditions, or inventory levels across major coffee-producing countries.
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