Vietnam Is The Second Largest Coffee Exporter In The World, The Highest In 16 Years, the whole of Europe is only looking to Vietnam. The price of Robusta coffee on the London floor at 5:12 a.m. on January 17, 2024 recorded a record increase, to 154 USD/kg, ranging from 2,792 – 3,170 USD/ton, the highest in at least 16 years. Specifically, the delivery term in January 2024 is 3,141 USD/ton; Delivery term in March 2024 is 3,170 USD/ton; Delivery term in May 2024 is 2,870 USD/ton and delivery term in July 2024 is 2,792 USD/ton.
According to analysts, the congestion of maritime transport routes through the Red Sea area continues to cause concerns about Robusta supply shortages from Asian countries, including Vietnam – the second coffee exporting country. world.
The Red Sea is an important maritime route, connecting the Mediterranean with the Indian Ocean, or from Europe to Asia. Therefore, tensions in the Red Sea increase risks to global trade flows and add costs to the shipping sector. Vietnamese businesses are also significantly affected by “hot” developments in the Red Sea.
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited data, saying tensions in the Red Sea could cause a container passing through Europe to incur an additional cost of 1,000 – 2,000 USD.
Data reported by ICE London shows that on January 15, Robusta inventory decreased by 1,170 tons, or 8.92% compared to the end of last week, down to 31,940 tons (about 532,333 bags, 60 kg bags). new record low since early September 2023.
Now, Europe can almost only rely on Vietnam to buy Robusta coffee. Therefore, it is likely that coffee prices in Vietnam will continue to increase in 2024, even being the highest in the world.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that in the 2023-2024 crop year, global Robusta coffee production will decrease for the second consecutive year to 74.1 million bags compared to 76.6 million bags in the previous crop year and is a low level. highest in the last 4 crop years.
Domestic price hits 71,500 VND/kg, people hoard goods waiting for higher prices
Regarding the domestic situation, as of January 17, 2024, coffee prices increased suddenly, reaching the highest mark of 71,500 VND/kg, an average of 71,300 VND/kg in the Central Highlands provinces, the highest purchase price in Dak province. Nong is 71,500 VND/kg.
Specifically, the price of coffee purchased in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces is quite high at 71,400 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 71,500 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (green coffee, fresh green coffee) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha is purchased at 70,900 VND/kg.
In Cu M’gar district, Dak Lak province, coffee is purchased at 71,300 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same rate of 71,400 VND/kg.
The Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuat Coffee Association said some farmers are waiting for coffee prices to rise before selling and rely on other sources of income such as durian to cover living and production costs.
After Robusta prices skyrocketed, some coffee growers canceled the sales contracts they signed at the beginning of the season out of concern that they would miss the opportunity to make a profit in case the coffee price jumped to 100,000 VND/kg. .
According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in December reached 207,613 tons with a value of nearly 600 million USD, a sharp increase of 74% in volume and 68.1% in value. compared to the previous month. For the whole year of 2023, our country earned more than 4.2 billion USD with 1.62 million tons of exported coffee, down 8.7% in volume but up 4.6% in value compared to the same period last year.
In addition, Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture on November 3 forecast that Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023/24 crop year could decrease by 10% to 1,656 million tons, the smallest crop in 4 years, due to drought. Meanwhile, the Vietnam Coffee Association on December 5 forecast that Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee production will decrease to 1.6 million tons – 1.7 million tons, down from 1.78 million tons. million tons a year earlier.
With the current situation, by April – May 2024, farmers can push out all their goods, contributing to promoting our country’s coffee exports to surpass the 4 billion USD mark early in 2024, while also setting a record. new export value if the situation lasts until the end of the year.
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