On April 3rd, 2025, global coffee prices recorded slight declines across both major exchanges. However, the real headline wasn’t just about supply and weather issues in Brazil — it was U.S. President Donald Trump’s dramatic announcement of a 46% tariff on all imports from Vietnam.
Coffee Price Movements – April 3rd, 2025
London Exchange (Robusta):
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May 2025: Down $6 → Closed at $5,366/ton
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July 2025: Down $6 → Closed at $5,400/ton
New York Exchange (Arabica):
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May 2025: Down 0.2¢ → Traded at 388.85¢/lb
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July 2025: Up 0.2¢ → Traded at 385.40¢/lb
Vietnam Domestic Market:
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Prices in the Central Highlands ranged from 132,200 to 133,500 VND/kg
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Shocking U.S. Tariffs: What Does It Mean for Vietnam’s Coffee?
President Trump’s latest trade move includes:
46% retaliatory tariffs on Vietnamese imports
10% tariffs on imports from Brazil and Colombia
The impact?
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Higher import costs for U.S. buyers
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Export disruption for Vietnamese producers
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Increased uncertainty for price stability and market flow
🔍 Experts say Vietnam’s coffee sector must pivot strategically — by upgrading Robusta quality and diversifying markets toward the EU, Asia, and the Middle East.
Weather & Supply: Key Market Drivers
Brazil: Arabica-growing regions saw some rainfall, but it’s insufficient. Weather remains a risk.
Vietnam:
Q1/2025 exports: 509,500 tons (down 12.9%)
Total value: $2.88 billion, up 49.5%
Avg export price: $5,656/ton, up 71.7%
Climate Forecast: La Niña is expected to replace El Niño in 2025, potentially bringing frost risk and lowering yields in both Vietnam and Brazil.
Short-Term Outlook
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From now to mid-April, prices are likely to remain volatile due to:
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Uncertain weather in Brazil
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Market anxiety surrounding the U.S. tariff policy
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Expiring futures contracts
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Traders are likely to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach in the coming days.
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Final Takeaway
While global coffee prices are slightly down due to seasonal and supply factors, the biggest disruptor is the sudden rise in U.S. tariffs.
Vietnam’s coffee industry will need to rethink its export strategies, invest in value-added Robusta, and prepare for long-term market shifts.