Coffee Market Update Week 13: In the past five weeks, Arabica coffee prices have shown a clear alternating trend — one week up, one week down. Week 13 closed on a downtrend, with prices settling at 379.95 US cents/lb, compared to 391.40 US cents/lb the previous week. Technically, New York’s key support level is now around 370 cents.
Meanwhile, Robusta coffee ended the week at $5,337/ton, down $178 from the previous week’s close of $5,515/ton. After reaching a peak of $5,735/ton a month ago — sparking hopes of hitting the $6,000 mark — Robusta has experienced a noticeable decline over the past five weeks.
📊 Technical Indicators
Despite recent declines, Robusta touched a key support level of $5,265 last Thursday and saw some buying interest around $5,290, signaling potential stabilization or short-term recovery.
📈 Supply-Side Pressure
The market is also reacting to forecasts of increased global supply:
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Marex Solutions projects Vietnam’s 2025/26 Robusta output at 28.8 million bags (+7.9%).
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Brazil’s 2025/26 Robusta production is expected at 25 million bags (+13.6%).
⛅ Weather Watch: Key Driver of Volatility
Coffee prices remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts:
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Arabica prices dropped to a one-month low, and Robusta hit a 2.5-month low last week.
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Rain in Brazil has eased drought concerns. According to Climatempo, widespread showers are expected in key coffee-growing areas this week.
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Somar Meteorologia reported 31.2 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais (Arabica region) during the week ending March 22 — 102% of historical averages.
In Vietnam, forecasts from Dak Lak suggest hotter, drier conditions in the Central Highlands — the country’s main coffee region — from March 21 to 31, adding further tension to global supply sentiment.
🌧️ In Brazil, rainfall is expanding across Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, and Bahia, with accumulated totals in some regions expected to exceed 120 mm. This trend is forecast to continue in the coming week.
🌊 ENSO Outlook:
The NOAA predicts a 75% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions from February to April. La Niña may emerge by September, affecting Brazil’s winter with reduced rainfall and lower temperatures — potentially influencing the next harvest.
🏭 Supply Chain & Export Dynamics
According to a report from Business Recorder (via Hanoi), Robusta supply is tight in both Vietnam and Indonesia. Vietnamese farmers are holding back coffee stocks, hoping for higher prices amid reduced Indonesian availability.
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In the Central Highlands, green coffee beans are being sold at 133,700–135,000 VND/kg (~$5.23–5.28), up from 131,000–133,000 VND/kg last week.
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Traders note that Vietnam is the only major Robusta supplier at this time, giving farmers more leverage in the market.
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Although it’s dry season in Vietnam, irrigation conditions remain favorable.
🚜 Brazil’s Robusta/Conilon Harvest Approaching
Harvest season for Brazil’s Conilon Robusta is about a week away, but unfavorable weather could hinder early harvest operations.
📦 European Coffee Stocks Decline
The European Coffee Federation (ECF) reported an 8.25% drop in stocks at ports across Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in February, totaling 7.39 million bags. This includes:
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2.53 million Robusta bags
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2.53 million naturally processed Arabica bags
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2.32 million washed Arabica bags from Brazil
📉 ICE Arabica Certified Stocks fell by 5,996 bags, now totaling 777,817 bags.
🎯 Looking Ahead
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Brazil’s Robusta harvest is set to begin in April, while the Arabica harvest follows mid-year.
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Most analysts forecast a robust Robusta crop of 24–26 million bags, potentially exceeding domestic demand and boosting export potential.
Helena Coffee Vietnam continues to monitor market movements closely to support our partners in making informed decisions on sourcing, trading, and investment.
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