Specialty coffee – long seen as the pinnacle of quality – offers refined flavors, clear origins, and meticulous processing. In the third wave’s peak, the 85–86 point range stood out for its taste, consistency, and container-level pricing. Now, this “backbone” has nearly vanished, disrupting roasters, importers, and farmers alike.
What is Specialty Coffee?
Specialty coffee, refers to coffee scoring 80 points or above on the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) scale. The score reflects cup quality, cleanliness, consistency, and processing methods.
According to this scale:
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80–84 points: Good quality, reasonably priced, common in entry-level specialty coffee.
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85–86 points: High quality, balancing flavor, consistency, and price – once the “backbone” for many roasters.
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87+ points: Premium coffee, often microlots or processed with unique methods.
In the past, the 85–86 point segment was the ideal choice for both single-origin filter and espresso, offering great quality at a price reasonable enough for container purchases.
Why has specialty coffee’s middle tier disappeared?
C market prices remain high
Since the historic frost in Brazil in 2021, the C price – the global benchmark for Arabica – has surged from 0.96 USD/lb (May 2020) to over 2 USD/lb (October 2020) and has rarely fallen below 1.40 USD since.
When the C price reaches 3–4 USD/lb, the premium paid for 85–86 point quality nearly disappears. Farmers can easily sell commercial-grade coffee at good prices without extra investment to improve quality.
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19 caused many roasters to lose 50–80% of their revenue within just a few months. To stay afloat, they downgraded from 85–86 point coffees to 80–83 point coffees to maintain profit margins. This buying habit has persisted even after the pandemic.
Competition from both ends of the market
The specialty coffee market has become polarized:
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Mass-market coffee (80–83 points), cheap and suited for milk-based drinks.
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Premium microlots (87+ points), very expensive, catering to connoisseurs.
The 85–86 point segment is stuck in the middle – too costly for the mainstream market, yet not “distinctive” enough for the high-end segment.
Impact of the disappearance of the 85–86 point segment
Roasters
Roasters have lost a reliable source of coffee that balanced quality and price. Without the 85–86 point tier, many turn to 80–83 point lots to cut costs, while others focus on high-end microlots despite their limited volumes. Both shifts bring trade-offs in flavor consistency and market reach.
Importers
Importers can no longer rely on mid-tier coffees that once bridged the gap between commercial and premium segments. This imbalance reduces steady revenue streams and limits flexibility in serving diverse roaster needs. As a result, portfolio planning becomes more challenging.
Farmers
For farmers, the missing middle means losing a path to higher prices without heavy investment in new infrastructure or varieties. Income stability is harder to maintain, and incentives to produce consistent quality decline. Many are left choosing between volume-driven commercial coffee or risky ultra-premium production.
How specialty coffee is adapting
Emphasizing clear differentiation
Many producers are shifting to innovative processing methods like anaerobic, honey, or carbonic maceration to achieve higher scores and command premium prices.
Upgrading commercial coffee
Applying specialty processing techniques to 80–83 point coffees to improve quality while keeping prices competitive.
Repositioning brands
Some roasters are focusing on origin stories, sustainability, and farmer relationships – elements that resonate with customers, even if they cannot tell the difference between 84 and 86 points in a milk-based drink.
Will specialty coffee’s middle tier return?
Its comeback depends on several factors:
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C prices dropping to the 1.50–2 USD/lb range.
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Lower logistics and tariff costs to improve price competitiveness.
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Changing consumer trends, with customers willing to pay more for higher quality.
If green coffee prices fall but the segment does not return, farmers will have to choose between:
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Increasing production efficiency to compete in the lower tier.
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Investing in ultra-premium coffee, a smaller, riskier segment.
The future of specialty coffee in the “missing middle” era
In the short term, the market will likely remain polarized:
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High-volume coffee for milk-based drinks and coffee chains.
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Ultra-specialty coffee for a small group of high-paying customers.
The 85–86 point gap will be hard to fill without significant changes in C prices and supply chain costs.
In the long run, the disappearance of the middle tier is not just a commercial fluctuation but a structural shift in the market. It affects everyone – from farmers and importers to roasters. Without a solution, the specialty coffee sector may lose a “shortcut” for creating sustainable added value from good-quality coffee that does not fall into the ultra-premium category.
Conclusion
Specialty coffee has always been a symbol of quality in the coffee industry. However, the disappearance of the 85–86 point segment has removed a vital pillar from the market. In the context of high C prices, expensive logistics, and changing consumer habits, flexibility in strategy – from products and branding to supply chain – will determine who survives in the new era of specialty coffee.
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