Coffee prices on April 20, 2026, recorded a significant decline across both domestic and global markets, marking the fourth consecutive week of downward movement. This trend is largely driven by expectations of increased supply as major producing regions like Brazil and Southeast Asia enter their peak harvest season. As supply pressure builds and market sentiment weakens, coffee prices are clearly entering a correction phase.
Domestic coffee p rices continue to fall
In Vietnam, coffee prices in the Central Highlands the country’s key coffee-growing region are currently ranging between VND 84,500 and VND 85,200 per kilogram, down by 600–700 VND/kg compared to the previous week.
Regional breakdown:
- Dak Nong: VND 85,200/kg (down 600 VND) – highest in the region
- Dak Lak & Gia Lai: VND 85,000/kg (down 700 VND)
- Lam Dong: VND 84,500/kg (down 700 VND) – lowest level
This sustained decline highlights the pressure on coffee prices in Vietnam, although trading activity remains relatively slow. Many farmers are holding back their stock, waiting for better price levels instead of selling immediately.
Global coffee prices drop across major exchanges
The downward trend in coffee prices is also evident in international markets, with both robusta and arabica contracts falling across key exchanges.
Robusta prices on the London exchange
- May 2026: down US$86/tonne (-2.47%) to US$3,388/tonne
- July 2026: down US$84/tonne (-2.50%) to US$3,263/tonne
- September 2026: down US$84/tonne (-2.55%) to US$3,194/tonne
Arabica prices on the New York exchange
- May 2026: down 7.15 cents/lb (-2.40%) to 289.30 cents/lb
- July 2026: down 6.15 cents/lb (-2.11%) to 284.25 cents/lb
- September 2026: down 4.40 cents/lb (-1.58%) to 279.90 cents/lb
Meanwhile, on China’s SHFE exchange, arabica prices also declined by approximately 2–3%, confirming a broad global downturn.
Key factors driving the decline in coffee prices
The current drop in coffee prices is influenced by several major factors:
Increasing global supply
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is expected to deliver a strong harvest:
- Total output projected at 75.65 million bags (2026–2027 season)
- Arabica production near 50 million bags (+29%)
- Robusta output slightly lower but still stable
In addition, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Uganda are entering harvest season, further boosting global supply expectations.
Weak market sentiment and low trading activity
Despite falling coffee prices, trading activity in Vietnam remains subdued. Farmers are:
- Holding inventory
- Waiting for price recovery
- Avoiding aggressive selling
This cautious behavior contributes to low liquidity and reinforces the downward trend.
Regional market pressure
In Indonesia, robusta coffee prices are also weakening:
- Premiums dropped from US$175 to US$150 (May contracts)
- July contracts fell from US$200 to US$140
Favorable weather conditions, particularly in West Lampung, are supporting crop development, further increasing supply pressure.
Supply and demand imbalance
Currently, coffee prices reflect a temporary imbalance in the global market:
- Supply is increasing due to upcoming harvests
- Demand remains stable, but not strong enough to absorb new supply
- Consumption is slowing, as roasters prioritize existing inventories
This imbalance is a key reason why prices are trending downward in the short term.
Brazil’s influence on global coffee prices
Brazil continues to play a dominant role in shaping coffee prices worldwide. As both the largest producer and a major consumer, its production forecasts significantly impact market expectations.
Several organizations, including Safras & Mercado, StoneX, Sucafina, and Marex, have all issued optimistic supply forecasts. These projections reinforce the expectation of abundant supply, putting further pressure on prices.
Outlook for coffee prices
In the short term, coffee prices are likely to:
- Remain under pressure
- Fluctuate within a narrow range
- Show limited upward momentum
However, in the medium to long term, prices could shift depending on:
- Weather risks (such as El Niño)
- Supply disruptions
- Changes in global consumption trends
Conclusion
Coffee prices on April 20, 2026 clearly reflect a market in correction mode. Increased supply from Brazil and Southeast Asia, combined with cautious trading behavior, is driving prices lower across both domestic and international markets.
Despite this downturn, the coffee market remains highly dynamic and sensitive to external factors. Monitoring weather conditions, production forecasts, and global demand will be essential for farmers, traders, and businesses navigating this evolving landscape.
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